Faulty Strategy: White Sox Past Draft Woes on Display as CJ Abrams, Nationals Visit South Side

As draft day approached in 2019, there were seemingly two camps in the scouting community and fan base as it related to the White Sox' position at No. 3 in the draft.

On one side, you had people supporting Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn, who was a year removed from winning the Golden Spikes Award as a sophomore for the Golden Bears. Vaughn was viewed by some in the scouting community as the best pure collegiate hitter since Kris Bryant was selected by the team across town earlier in the decade.

On the opposite side, you had supporters of Georgia prep shortstop CJ Abrams. He was viewed by the scouting community as a true up-the-middle talent with elite-level speed and natural hitting ability. Abrams' speed and athleticism made him a darling among scouts because of his positional versatility. There were some question marks about whether he'd ultimately stay at shortstop, but his natural gifts would allow him to seamlessly transition to the keystone or center field if a position change was, indeed, needed.

Thus, the debate raged on social media and in scouting publications. White Sox fans seemed divided on what was the best approach for the organization to take. Many felt the team was on the precipice of entering a contention window and supplementing the roster with a presumably quick riser like Vaughn would only strengthen a lineup that many at the time believed would be one of the league's most potent.

However, the need to have future waves of talent, much like Rick Hahn promised us, was also present as most of the club's top prospects had already ascended to Chicago or would quickly be arriving, leaving the system relatively depleted. Abrams represented the type of player who provided tremendous tools and star-caliber upside, while Vaughn was viewed as a safer pick that would lead to more instant gratification.

CJ Abrams > Andrew Vaughn

The team ultimately selected Vaughn, and he's looking like one of the biggest flops of a 2019 first-round class that has produced several quality MLB players. Since joining the White Sox at the start of the 2021 season, the 26-year-old Vaughn is slashing a meager .252/.311/.408 with 54 home runs and 99 wRC+. Those figures are a far cry from what was expected of the nation's former top collegiate player.

The Sox didn't do Vaughn any favors with their development plan for him, as we all know. I still contend that the team's decision to pass on signing a true DH in 2021 instead of thrusting a player who had never stepped in a batter's box above High-A Winston Salem was the biggest developmental mistake possible. Aside from the poor developmental process decisions, was Vaughn the right choice for a team making its final rebuild era pick?

Taking a player with Vaughn's profile at No. 3 in the draft carries a tremendous amount of risk. His collegiate scouting profiles highlighted a player who was limited to first base/DH responsibilities due to being undersized and having limited, at best, athleticism. If you're going to take a player with these obvious limitations that high in the draft, you have to be spot on with your scouting and development processes that you are getting a middle-of-the-order masher.

I talked frequently that the only acceptable outcomes for Vaughn since he wasn't providing anything of value with the glove or on the bases was to be Rhys Hoskins at worst or Pete Alonso at best. What the White Sox have gotten to this point is the worst possible outcome imaginable. It's entirely possible that Vaughn will be non-tendered this winter given how poorly he has performed with the bat. Needless to say, the organization couldn't afford for this to happen.

Contrast that with the development of Abrams and it'll make you want to beat your head against the wall. Abrams is a full three years younger than Vaughn, giving him added upside as there was still more projection and growth possible than a collegiate corner bat-only player. Abrams' speed and athleticism allowed him to be projected as an up-the-middle (SS, 2B, CF, C) player who'd make an impact in multiple ways. I've long believed that when picking in the top five of the first round, you need to focus on players who will at least have the opportunity to stay up the middle or get to the Majors as a starting pitcher. Abrams is that type of player.

His first two seasons in the bigs with San Diego and Washington following his trade during the 2022 season produced mixed results. Abrams reached the sport's highest level at 21 and experienced growing pains, but you can see incremental improvements with added experience. For his first two campaigns, he slashed .246/.293/.383, with 20 home runs, 54 stolen bases, and 84 wRC+. He's blossomed so far this season by putting together a .277/.337/.520 slash line with seven homers, eight stolen bases, and 137 wRC+. How would that look in the White Sox lineup right about now?

Sure, the defense raises concern with Abrams not grading out well according to DRS (-4) and OAA (-22). While a move off the shortstop position seems likely at this point, shifting a player with this level of athleticism to second base or even center field shouldn't come with much difficulty. Abrams' ability to slide across the defensive spectrum to other premium positions still allows him to be immensely valuable, especially if he's turned the corner offensively with his improved power output this season. Nothing of the sort can be said for Vaughn.

Learning from the Mistake

The hope is that the White Sox learned from their draft day mistake five years ago. The 2024 MLB Draft will be the team's last opportunity at a high-level pick due to the new anti-tanking rules that were implemented with the last CBA. Despite having potentially the worst season in franchise history, the Sox won't be able to pick higher than 10th in a loaded 2025 draft class.

Because of this, the team must have a sound strategy at No. 5 this year. Since assuming the role of amateur scouting director, Mike Shirley has been more in line with the thought process outlined above when it comes to his first-round selections. Admittedly, I didn't like the Garrett Crochet pick in 2020 due to the reliever profile and risk presented by the southpaw, but since then Shirley has taken the Sox down a different path than we've seen in recent memory.

The selections of high school shortstop Colson Montgomery, high school pitcher Noah Schultz, and college shortstop Jacob Gonzalez all signify a different approach than his predecessor, Nick Hostetler. Shirley seems to understand the need to focus on up-the-middle players and pitchers with starter profiles. Does that mean one of Montgomery or Gonzalez will be the shortstop of the future for the White Sox? Does that mean you can pencil Schultz into the Sox starting rotation come 2026? No, but they'll be given every opportunity to take hold of those positions. In my world, that's the right approach.

For this reason, I'm hopeful that recent mock drafts linking the White Sox to Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz are just smoke and mirrors. We saw five years ago the folly of taking a bat-only corner player. And given where the Sox are now in their most recent rebuild, they need to shoot for as much star potential and upside as possible. That shouldn't be a college first baseman, in my mind.

We get to see the real-time results of the Andrew Vaughn vs. CJ Abrams debate from five years ago over the next three games. Sadly, it's going to be a painful reminder of another failed thought process that has the White Sox in the state of disrepair they find themselves. We can only hope that they learned from this mistake and seeing Abrams up close and personal will cement them going down the correct path this time.